ADP Employment beats expectations, provides positive Non-Farm Payroll signal

The ADP Employment Report printed gains of 195k jobs for the month of August, beating the 149k figure expected. This is a strong positive signal for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls as, according to our NFP Crash Course, “the ADP report is the harbinger of the NFP, because of the existent correlation between the two”. EUR/USD barely reacted to the news though, falling just around 10 pips on the release.

The positive signal showed by this figure, based on the private payroll report, could offset the negatives shown by big consumer and manufacturing business surveys in the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Other NFP leading indicators of less significance were just released, with the Challenger Job Cuts report showing a notable increased in the number of corporate layoffs (53.480k in August after just 38.845k in July) and the Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims figures staying stable around 215k and 1.7 million each one.

All in all, the NFP leading indicator table looks quite mixed with just one (but big) release to get: the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which should provide a strong signal, as the service sector is the biggest in the United States economy,  will be published later on at 14 GMT.

US jobs report pre-release checklist – Sep 6th, 2019