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Analysts at Nomura explained that the ADP reported a 227k gain in private employment during October, above expectations (Nomura: 170k, Consensus: 187k), driven by strong hiring activity in both the goods-producing (+38k) and service-providing (+189k) sectors.  

Key Quotes:

“Today’s report suggests some upside risk to our forecast of a 170k gain in private nonfarm payroll employment for Friday’s BLS report.”

“However, ADP usually does not reflect weather disruptions.”

“Given the impact of Hurricanes Florence and Michael in September and October, there is more uncertainty than usual around Friday’s NFP number and today’s ADP report may not accurately reflect the negative impact from Hurricane Michael.”

“In addition, the slight downward revision to ADP’s September reading (218k, previously 230k) could suggest that the BLS may revise up their September figure of 121k.”