“Away from the contentious border issue, there’s also the big question of how the opposition Labour Party will vote,” ING analysts said in a recently published report.
Key quotes
“Speaking at the party’s annual conference, Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer made it pretty clear that Labour will reject any deal that PM May agrees with the EU. Of course, the main motivation for that is that it could force a general election. If that’s not possible, Starmer said that the party would be open to a second referendum, possibly including the option of ‘remain’.”
“Given the economic carnage that ‘no deal’ would likely induce, it’s possible that not all Labour MPs will be so willing to reject the deal with the stakes so high. But with the likes of the Lib Dems and other smaller parties, as well possibly even the DUP, likely to follow the bulk of Labour MPs if they vote against the final agreement, the chances of ‘no deal’ may well hinge on what the Conservative Brexiteers decide to do.”
” Faced with the possible options of ‘no deal’, another election or a second referendum, the latter two of which could see Brexit cancelled altogether, there may be limited incentive for Conservative MPs to rebel against the government when push comes to shove. Of course, we’re unlikely to know for sure until mid-late January at the earliest, and in the meantime, Brexiteers are likely to maintain maximum pressure on the government to make concessions before a deal is agreed. This says that Brexit talks are only likely to get noisier in the near-term.”
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