According to the latest Reuters poll of analysts, the aggressive calls for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are likely to rescue the Antipodeans after they may have almost reached a bottom.
Key Findings:
“The Aussie is seen at $0.6900 in one- and three months’ time, unchanged from the June poll, before rising to $0.7000 in six months and $0.7200 on a one-year horizon. It was last trading at $0.7025.
That’s a marked turnaround in fortunes for a currency that touched five-month lows of $0.6832 in mid-June.
Yet investors have gone even further on U.S. rates, wagering the Federal Reserve will ease by 100 basis points in the coming year starting with at least 25 basis points this month.
Also offering some support has been a meteoric rise in prices for iron ore, Australia’s single largest export earner. The mineral has surged 70% so far this year and helped deliver a string of record trade surpluses.
The New Zealand dollar has also benefited from the U.S. dollar’s rate troubles, steadying at $0.6683 after bouncing from a seven-month trough of $0.6482.
Forecasts were for it to hold at $0.6600 right out to six months, before edging up to $0.6700 in one year. As always, predictions ranged widely from $0.6200 to $0.7400.”
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