Core PCE price index to fall 0.3% in April while Personal Income and Spending are expected to plunge to a six-decade low. Instead of elucidating an unknown situation, these figures only serve to define the assumed catastrophe, according to FXStreet’s analyst Joseph Trevisani.
Key quotes
“Core PCE prices are expected to slip 0.3% in April while the annual core PCE rate is forecast to drop from 1.7% in March to 1.1% in April.”
“Personal income is forecast to drop 6.5% in April in the largest drop since the series began in February 1959. The ranges of estimates for April in the Reuters survey is -21.5% to 10.6%. Personal spending is predicted to tumble 12.6% in April after the March 7.5% decline. The range of estimates is from -22% to -5%.”
“The PCE price figures and income and spending results for April, while historically interesting, will add nothing to the Fed’s understanding of the depth of the economic black hole. Its policy response was presciently set more than two months ago.”
“Because the economic collapse is expected to be temporary, even if the speed and degree of the recovery is undetermined, equity and currency markets have been pricing the situation two and three months out. The anticipated records in April PCE prices, personal spending and income are already past history.”
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