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According to Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist at ABN AMRO, the emerging Asian manufacturing PMIs for August that have been published so far show quite a mixed picture.

Key Quotes

“China’s official manufacturing PMI (published by NBS) dropped to 49.5 (July: 49.7, consensus: 49.6), whereas Caixin’s PMI rose back to a five month high of 50.4 (July: 49.9, consensus: 49.8). The difference between the two readings could reflect the fact that the stepping up of stimulus by the Chinese authorities is mainly targeted to the private sector, which is more strongly represented in Caixin’s survey.”

“Elsewhere in the region, manufacturing PMIs dropped in India, Indonesia and Taiwan. By contrast, South Korea’s index rose back to a four-month high of 49. Still, it remained below the neutral 50 mark – as is the case for China (NBS), Taiwan and Indonesia as well as for Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia (where August numbers will be published soon). PMI export sub-indices also remain subdued in most Asian countries.”

“All this shows that the escalation of the US-China trade/tech war is making itself felt in the manufacturing sectors of the highly export oriented emerging Asian region.”