According to the latest Reuters poll, most major Asian economies are likely to face either a significant slowdown or contraction in the current quarter, as the negative economic fallout of the coronavirus will be more evident now.
Key findings:
“With the contagion interrupting global supply chains that most countries depend on for trade and commerce, economic activity is likely to slow, but at varying degrees.
More than three-quarters of economists, 57 of 77, who answered an additional question also expect growth across these other Asian economies to pick up in the second quarter.
While South Korea was the hardest hit by the virus outside of China, its impact on the economy so far seems modest, according to forecasters who expect it to grow 2.1% in the first quarter, down only 0.4 percentage point from a January Reuters poll.
Singapore, a port city and a major trade partner with China, is expected to contract 0.6% in the present quarter, a first since the 2009 recession after the global financial crisis.
Thailand’s and Taiwan’s economies are forecast to expand at a paltry 0.2% and 1.3% in the current quarter, the lowest in nearly half a decade.
Australia’s economy, a proxy for Chinese economic growth, is forecast to grind to a halt in the current quarter, ending the country’s near three-decade growth streak which started in 1991.
The least impact would be on Indonesia, which is expected to grow 4.7% this year.”
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