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AUD/USD was rebuffed on a probe of the 50dma just below 0.7500 on the latest salvo in the US-China trade war, explains Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“The Aussie’s sensitivity to this battle seems likely to help cap rallies multi-month, but in the week ahead, attention may wander, given that the public notice period on the $200bn runs through Aug.”

“Australia’s domestic calendar shouldn’t hurt AUD much, with underlying job creation decent even if there is a surprise next week. This week’s consumer and business sentiment surveys were encouraging.”

“Yet it is hard to avoid a downward bias for AUD/USD on the week, given the resilience of DXY and with our basket of Australia’s key commodity prices edging lower.”

“As such, AUD/USD seems set to at least test the 18mth lows just above 0.73. A break might depend on trade news.”