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ANZ analysts point out that high-level trade talks between the US and China are set to resume 10-11 October and while the chances of a substantive deal are still remote, a temporary truce or ‘mini-deal’ would be sufficient to boost risk sentiment, and by extension, the AUD.

Key Quotes

“The AUD has been a flag-bearer of trade concerns over the last year. We estimate the partial unwinding of some of these concerns could be worth up to 4%.”

“AUD/JPY is our favoured expression of a partial deal outcome, should it manifest. We believe there will be opportunity to enter this trade upon the confirmation of a deal. Should one want to be pre-positioned for the announcement, AUD/EUR provides a lower beta alternative to the traditional risk pairs ahead of the meeting.”