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  • AUD/JPY is stuck at 50-day MA hurdle since Monday.  
  • An above-forecast US payrolls data may boosting risk appetite.  
  • Risk-on could help AUD/JPY scale the MA resistance.  

AUD/JPY was looking north at the beginning of the week, having witnessed a falling wedge breakout or a bearish-to-bullish trend change on June 26.  

The pair’s ascent, however, has stalled with the 50-day moving average (MA) capping upside in three out of the last four days.  

As of writing, the pair is trading largely unchanged on the day at 75.74 and the 50-day MA is located at 75.86.  

While the falling wedge breakout is still valid, the repeated failure at the MA resistance has weakened the bullish case. A daily close above the average hurdle is needed to confirm the path of least resistance is to the higher side.  

The JPY cross may close above the MA hurdle today if the US non-farm payrolls data due at 12:30 GMT today blows past expectations, alleviating concerns of a slowdown in the US economy and further boosting risk appetite, leading to a broad-based drop in the anti-risk Japanese Yen.  

That said, traders need to keep an eye on the action in the stocks. The US equities are already at record highs and could come under pressure, putting a bid under the JPY, as an above-forecast US data will ease pressure on the US Federal Reserve to deliver aggressive rate cuts.  

Technical Levels