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  • Mixed Aussie data failed to offer more Aussie moves.
  • All eyes are on the RBA’s monetary policy decision for now.

The AUD/JPY pair trades near 77.40 after the Australian Bureau of Statistics released March month retail sales and trade balance data on early Tuesday.

The headline seasonally adjusted retail sales grew 0.3% versus 0.2% forecast and 0.8% prior while trade balance surplus also beat estimates of 4.3 billion with AUD 4,949 million mark.

Details suggest that exports shrank -2.0% compared to 0.0% earlier release whereas imports also shrank -2.0% against the -1.0% previous readout.

During early Tuesday, the US lawmakers including Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin supported the US President Donald Trump’s threat to levy fresh tariffs on China. However, the same could be avoided if both sides seal the deal by Friday during the Chinese delegates’ two-day visit to Washington starting from Thursday.

Risk tone remained heavy since morning as the US-Iran political play joins the pessimism surrounding the US-China trade deal. The global barometer for the risk sentiment, 10-year treasury yield from the US, dropped nearly 2.5 basis points to 2.475% during early Tuesday.

Next up in the traders’ radar will be the monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Aussie central bank is more likely to announce a 25 basis points (bps) cut to its benchmark cash rate considering the latest downbeat data. However, a mixed signal from the employment sector continues to raise questions on the RBA’s move.

Technical Analysis

While short-term descending trend-line can limit the quote’s upside near 77.95 – 78.00, an upside clearance might not refrain from escalating the moves to 100-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 78.70.

Alternatively, 77.000 may offer immediate rest to the prices, a break of which could recall 76.80, 76.00 and 75.30 back on the chart.