- The Aussie sees little reason to run against the JPY as traders await meaningful data.
- With market tensions remaining close to the surface, traders are keeping one foot in the Yen door.
The AUD/JPY is continuing to cycle around the 80.50 for this week after broader markets halted their flight into safety last week on fears of Turkish contagion, but the rebound in market sentiment has seen little favour given to the Aussie as bulls have little reason to buy.
The Australian Business Conditions Index softened to a reading of 12 this week compared to the previous period’s printing of 15, and Aussie traders are awaiting Thursday’s Aussie employment figures, with buyers bracing for a minor upwards tick in the seasonally-adjusted Unemployment Rate from 5.5% to 5.6%, but a flubbed reading of Wednesday’s q/q Wage Price Index (forecast 0.6%, last 0.5%) due at 01:30 GMT today could see sentiment towards the battered AUD soften ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report.
On the Yen side, JPY traders are looking towards the latest round of Japan’s Trade Balance, due very late Wednesday at 23:50 GMT; Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance is expected to contract sharply to ¥-50.0 billion over the previous period’s revised ¥720.0 billion reading, fueled in part by a projected jump in Imports (forecast 14.4%, last 2.6%).
The Japanese Yen remains the safe-haven of choice for much of the broader market, and the Aussie can expect to continue to struggle against the JPY as market tensions over brewing trade wars and US-Turkey frictions continue.
AUD/JPY levels to watch
Support for the AUD/JPY pair is thin after knocking into a 22-month low, and if bulls can’t get their feet under them quickly then the way lies open for further declines into a broad resistance zone from 2016’s bottom patterns, ranging from 76.75 all the way to 70.30. On the buyers’ side, last week’s high of 82.80 represents a significant barrier before resistance from recent consolidation just beneath the 84.00 handle, while the AUD/JPY has spent most of 2018 capped by 84.50.
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