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  • AUD/JPY is taking up higher grounds towards a key resistance om the charts.
  • Risk-off is yet to kick in following negative implications the spread of Covid-19 in Australia.

AUD/JPY has had a mixed start to the week, initially losing its footing on a marginally bid-up yen, then taking off from the lows (74.45), rallying to a high of 74.75 so far. 

The weekend headlines are contrary to the move, but as full markets engage, they could hamstring bullish attempts in AUD.

While the US diabolical coronavirus situation is taking up the global front pages, domestic cases in Melbourne and the state fo Victoria are spread across the national papers. 

Victoria’s second wave ‘a threat to overall Australian economic recovery’: IBISWorld stated.

IBISWorld analyst Yin Yeoh has taken a look at the Australian Covid-19 economic recovery:

The second wave of Covid-19 cases in Victoria is a threat to overall Australian recovery. It underscores just how quickly this virus can return, and should make other states and territories wary of relaxing quarantine measures too quickly …

While Victoria has been the first Australian region to experience a second wave … it is unlikely to be the last. Local outbreaks and lockdowns are likely to be the new normal for some time.

Yeoh’s report includes this breakdown:

In 2018-19, Victoria contributed 23.7% of Australia’s national GDP, with most of this productivity occurring in the wholesale (18.7%), retail (13.7%), construction (13.5%) and manufacturing (12.8%) divisions.

Overall Australian GDP is expected to decline by 1% in 2020-21, before recovering by 4.3% in 2021-22.

Meanwhile, the Aussie is a compelling chart, resting at critical resistance following a surge of some 28% since it started to recover from the COVID-19 lows in March. 

We have the Reserve Bank of Australia this week, so markets will be looking for any hints from them as to their stance on the strength of the currency. 

More on that here:

What you need to know for the open: Summer lull or a COVID-19 tidal wave of panic-vol?

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AUD/JPY levels