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  • AUD/JPY is better bid over a series of up days, despite heightened risks of a No-Deal Brexit and a No-Trade Agreement between Xi and Trump.
  • AUD/JPY is currently trading on the 83 handle, having made a high of 83.21 overnight from a low of 82.80.  

AUD/JPY is riding the recovery in US stocks and weakness in the dollar whereby commodities and EM-FX have benefitted, supporting a bid on the Aussie. Base metals have corrected on the back of Powell’s speech and the FOMC minutes which has planted some seeds for a comeback in AUD/USD which is currently camping ut above the 23.6% fibo and grounded on the 0.73 handle.  

FOMC minutes:

  • FOMC minutes: Almost all participants see another rate hike is likely to be warranted fairly soon

The FOMC minutes of the 7-8 November meeting showed that “almost all” members thought another hike is likely warranted “fairly soon”, as jobs and inflation data were in line or stronger than the Fed’s current expectations. But “many participants indicated that it might be appropriate at some upcoming meetings to begin to transition to statement language that placed greater emphasis on the evaluation of incoming data.”  

  • Wall Street ends choppy session slightly lower as investors wait for G20 summit

Eyes now on Xi/Trump summit

The next catalyst for the cross will come from the outcome of this weekend’s scheduled dinner between Xi and Trump. However, markets could be in for a letdown. Today, we heard that Trump is showing a reluctance to give much room in China’s favour. “Frankly, I like the deal we have right now,” he said today, referring to tariffs.  

Also, China trade hawk Navarro is attending the Trump-Xi dinner,  a White House official confirmed to CNBC. The South China Morning Post first reported Navarro’s attendance, which sent the Dow briefly to its low of the day. AUD/JPY trades as a barometer to risk sentiment, and at these levels, it is looking somewhat vulnerable. Market sentiment remains extremely sensitive after the US administration recently signalled its frustration with the Chinese proposals and AUD/JPY would be the first tell-tale sign if things are not going to go to plan.  

 AUD/JPY levels

AUD/JPY trades in tandem with the Aussie and is making a base for itself above the 38.2% Fibo of the 2018 range. The 21-D SMA crossover of the 200-D SMA is bullish, and RSI is heading higher within positive territory with room to go until meeting the prior Nov high at 70. The next stop on the upside is R1 at 83.34 that guards the 50% Fibo and R2 at 83.80. A break of R3 opens the 61.8% Fibo at 85.03. To the downside, S3 is located at 81.32.