AUD/NZD: Likely Headed Higher Over Coming Months But Scope For Reversal To Extend N-Term – NAB

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AUD/NZD has climbed sharply in recent weeks. What is the outlook for the pair through the end of 2020?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

NAB Research discusses AUD/NZD outlook and sees a scope for a dip into 1.05 over the coming weeks before resuming its upmove through 1.09 by year-end.

“The RBNZ is seen ready to buy up to as much as 50% of the NZ government bond market, which will see the QE programme upscaled significantly at the May MPS. The deeper economic hole that NZ has created for itself as well as the massive QE programme – likely more than twice as great as the RBA’s government bond buying when measured as a percent of GDP on our estimates –  are two reasons why we see AUD/NZD headed higher,” NAB notes.

“With the upside revision to AUD forecasts, our new projections reflect those macro forces. A case for a nearterm reversal of the cross (driven mainly from the AUD side after its recent exceptional strength) can be made after the strong recovery from parity at its lows, but macro forces suggest a higher plane through the second half of the year,” NAB adds.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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