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  • AUD/NZD bleeding in a bullish structure headed towards a test of trendline resistance.
  • RBA rate cuts not off the table and PBoC slash their prime rate.

AUD/NZD has fallen below a key support on the charts as the People’s Bank of China slash their prime rate (LPR) to lower borrowing costs and ease financial strains on companies hit by the virus epidemic. AUD/NZD is currently trading at 1.04411, down 0.10% on the session falling from a high of 1.10471 to a low of 1.0428. 

  • China sets 1-year loan prime rate at 4.05% vs 4.15% a month earlier.
  • China sets 5-year loan prime rate at 4.75% vs 4.80% a month earlier.

Aussie jobs data in full 

  • Australia Jan Employment +13.5k s/adj (Reuters poll: +10.0k).
  • Australia Jan Unemployment rate +5.3 %, s/adj (Reuters poll: +5.2).
  • Australia Jan Full time employment +46.2k s/adj.
  • Australia Jan Participation rate +66.1 %, s/adj (Reuters poll: +66.0 pct).

Aussie drops to fresh lows on combined bearish events

USD/CNY spiked from 6.9975 to 7.0011 on the news and AUD/USD dropped to fresh 11-year lows.  This has tipped the balance back in favour of the AUD/NZD bears as the odds of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia move higher considering today’s miss in the Unemployment rate of 0.1%.

However, while the chances of a rate cut are probable, there are still positive takeaways fro the jobs data, given the Participation rate inched higher, which likely makes up for some of the bearishness in the unemployment rate missing expectations, 5.2% vs 5.3% actual, and higher than the 5.1% prior. 

AUD/NZD levels

AUD/NZD fell back to 1.0450 support structure from 1.0470 prior to the jobs data release and then extended losses below this key support to 1.0428, as the next key structure.  More on the technical outlook here: AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Bears looking for a break to 1.0390, although bullish outlook constructive to 1.05 handle.