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  • AUD/USD rises to the 2-week top despite dismal Chinese data.
  • Chinese seaport closure and iron ore price may weigh on the Aussie.
  • Further, Chinese M2 money supply data is important after stimulus measures.

The AUD/USD price analysis suggests a clear bullish scenario as the pair ignores dismal Chinese data and heading upwards beyond the 0.7300 mark.

The AUD/USD pair refreshes the two-week top at 0.7330, up 0.48% on Tuesday, at the time of writing.

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China’s PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has received a muted response from Australia despite disappointing figures. In spite of this, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index approached the level of 50.1 rather than 50.2. Generally, the last number is more important to the market.

The Australian building approval and current account figures missed expectations. Still, the Aussie sellers were not impressed and buyers continue to dominate the market.

Continuing threats to growth prospects have affected survey respondents’ outlook due to the Delta Covid variant. For example, several seaports were closed last month, and flight data showed that the number of passengers had declined since the Delta variant began spreading.

Two weeks ago, China’s weaker economic data was linked to the PMI, with retail sales (8.5% y/y) and industrial production (6.4% y/y) below expectations. Following the publication of this data, the NBK announced more incentive measures. Therefore, further stimulus measures will be sought by the markets.

The Chinese government will release data on trade, inflation, and cash supply in two weeks. In addition, market participants will pay attention to M2 to see the effect of the announcement of liquidity injections.

Future prospects for many Chinese exports could be further harmed by the delta variant. For example, the Australian dollar and iron ore prices are likely to suffer because of this. In addition, the biggest market for Australia’s exports is threatened by potential closures of Chinese ports after several have reopened.

The price of iron ore has stabilized since China resumed shipping routes. However, AUD/USD is still in a downtrend. Therefore, the Australian dollar may be affected by declining prices for iron ore.

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AUD/USD price technical analysis:

AUD/USD 4-hour price chart analysis
AUD/USD 4-hour price chart analysis

The AUD/USD bulls are heading to 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The pair have done a 67% average daily range while volume is slowly rising. As long as the price remains above 0.7300, the bulls will remain in charge and may look for targets around 0.7380 – 0.7400. However, the first hurdle is 200-period SMA that may hamper the uptrend a little.

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