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  • AUD/USD sees little action despite a below-forecast Aussie trade data for September. 
  • RBA is likely to maintain the status quo on Tuesday but may signal rate cut in November. 
  • The US dollar is trading weak across the board, keeping AUD/USD bid above 0.7180.

AUD/USD continues to trade in green near 0.7185, with investors paying little attention to the dismal Aussie trade data released at 01:30 GMT. 

Australia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to A$ 2,643 million in September versus expectations for a rise to A$ 5,154 million from August’s $4,294 million. The outbound shipments or exports fell by 4.2% in September following August’s 2% contraction, while imports rose 2% compared to August’s 7% slide. 

So far, however, the dismal trade data has failed to elicit a reaction from the Aussie dollar pairs. That’s possibly due to caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision due at 03:30 GMT and broad-based weakness in the US dollar. 

The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates and other policy tools unchanged; it may set the stage for a rate next month. 

Major investment banks foresee the bank cutting interest rates to a new record low of 0.10% from 0.25% in November. 

The US dollar is on the defensive, courtesy of President Trump’s progress on health and renewed expectations for Washington’s fiscal deal. 

The AUD/USD pair jumped 0.25% on Monday, reversing losses seen on Friday. Markets turned risk-averse in the second half of the last week, pushing the safe-haven USD higher after Trump said he and the first lady tested positive for coronavirus. The news boosted political uncertainty in the world’s largest economy. 

Technical levels