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  • AUD/USD kick-starts the week with a gap-down, seesaws around 0.6930 afterward.
  • A surge in the virus cases, hospitalizations in the US, escalating Sino-American tension question market sentiment.
  • Recent weakness of the US dollar, upbeat China data pleased Aussie bulls.
  • TD Securities Inflation, ANZ Job Advertisements to decorate Monday’s calendar, RBA, China inflation will be the key for the week.

AUD/USD kick-starts the week with a downside gap to 0.6932, currently around 0.6929, from Friday’s close near 0.6942. In doing so, the aussie pair probes the latest five-day winning streak, not to forget the previous two week’s rise. Though, the bulls are holding the gates tightly as the quote could move only five pips following the downbeat open.

Read: What you need to know for the open: Summer lull or a COVID-19 tidal wave of panic-vol?

Coronavirus, US-China tussle keeps hammering the upside…

As per the recent coronavirus (COVID-19) updates from America, hospitalizations in Texas posted a record high for the seventh day in a row with a rise by 291 to 8,181 on Sunday. Further, the pandemic figures from the US have exceeded 50,000 per day every day in July and are at record top. Though, US President Donald Trump last week said the surge in the figures is a result of massive testing.

On the other hand, the world’s two largest economies, namely the US and China, remain at loggerheads and the tension increased off-late. While US President Trump is yet to sign a bill to sanction diplomats from Beijing involved in the passage of the Hong Kong security law, a White House official recently said a few more punitive measures coming soon. On the other hand, the dragon nation has warned the Trump administration and tried to keep a watch over the American media opening on their lands.

Elsewhere, the US-Iran and the India-China issues tried to weigh on the market’s risk-tone sentiment. However, the US market’s off on Friday, due to the Independence Day, coupled with the recent hike in equities amid upbeat American jobs report, favored the optimists. It’s worth mentioning that Chinese statistics have been positive off-late and offered additional strength to the AUD/USD pair.

Moving on, TD Securities Inflation for June, prior +0.1% YoY, followed by ANZ Job Advertisements, 0.50% earlier readout, could offer immediate direction to the pair. However, major attention will be given to the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, expected 49.5 versus 45.4 prior, for a clearer direction.

Above all, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting on Tuesday will be the key for this week. The reason being the Australian dollar’s strength and the surge in the virus numbers at home, Melbourne cases the biggest in three months.

Technical analysis

Unless breaking below 0.6900 mark, AUD/USD is likely to head to the upper-end of a three-week-old ascending triangle, at 0.6975 now. Also, the pair’s sustained trading beyond 21-day SMA enables it to cross the immediate hurdle and rise towards 0.7000 threshold. However, a downside break below 0.6900 might lure the sellers to attack the triangle’s support line, currently around 0.6865.