- AUD/USD looks for direction after consecutive four days of declines.
- Trade pessimism weighs on the pair, upbeat US CPI, Powell added weakness.
- Australia’s employment report, China’s Retail Sales, Industrial Production awaited.
A lack of consensus on the US-China phase one deal joins upbeat catalysts from the United States (US) to drag the AUD/USD pair down recently. The quote takes the rounds to 0.6840, by early Thursday morning in Asia, after witnessing four back-to-back days of declines.
Diplomats from the US and China keep arguing over the phase one deal, with the Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) latest report citing disagreement over farm products, which in turn weighs on the market’s sentiment and the Aussie pair. This stopped buyers from cheering the welcome numbers from Westpac Consumer Confidence on early Wednesday. It should also be noted that an unchanged print of the third quarter (Q3) Wage Price Index generated no major reaction.
On the other hand, better than expected prints of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s refrain from using any new statements also contributed to the pair’s weakness.
As a result, the US 10-year Treasury yields slip to sub-1.9% area while Wall Street registered mildly bid closings on Wednesday.
Traders will now concentrate on the key Aussie employment numbers for October and China’s Retail Sales/Industrial Production. It should also be noted that Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations for November and speech from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock can act as intermediate catalysts.
Ahead of the events, Westpac says, “The dip in Australia’s unemployment rate from 5.3% in Aug to 5.2% in Sep had a big impact on markets, A$ bouncing and pricing for an RBA Nov rate cut sliding. The unemployment rate should remain the most sensitive number for markets in the Oct labor force survey (11:30 am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK). The median forecast is 5.2% but Westpac looks for it to round up to 5.3%, with total employment +17k (median +15k). The participation rate in Sep dipped 0.1ppt from its record high but remains tough to predict month to month so there is plenty of scope for a surprise. China releases Oct activity data at 1 pm Syd/10 am local: industrial production, retail sales and retail sales. We focus most on IP, which has been very volatile this year, including a 17 year low of 4.4% in Aug. Consensus is for a modest 5.4%yr gain after 5.8%yr in Sep.”
While a mixed outcome is mostly expected to keep the traders guessing, pessimism surrounding the US-China trade deal can continue exerting downside pressure on the quote.
Technical Analysis
Despite pair’s recent bounce, 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6855 and 200-day EMA level around 0.6940 keep exerting downside pressure on the prices. Sellers await a clear break of 50-day EMA level, 0.6833 now, to aim for 0.6800 mark.
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