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The AUD/USD pair has broken above the 38.2% retracement of the 2011/2020 fall at 0.7625/40 and the 0.7677 June 2018 high, confirming the uptrend is still intact. The next key resistance is seen at the 2020 high at 0.7742, removal of which would see 0.7816 next, according to the Credit Suisse analyst team.

See: AUD/USD to extend the rally above 0.7750 – OCBC

Key quotes

“AUD/USD broke out of its previous high-level range during the final days of 2020, removing the key 38.2% retracement of the entire 2011/2020 fall at 0.7625/40 as well as the crucial June 2018 high at 0.7677. All this suggests that the key core uptrend remains intact as we start the new year, in line with the large ‘head and shoulders’ base that is still in place.” 

“We now see first resistance at the late 2020 high at 0.7742, where we expect to see fresh sellers at first as the market attempts to shift into a near-term and temporary range. An immediate break above here would instead see a direct move to the psychological inflection point at 0.7800 next, removal of which would see a test of the April 2018 high at 0.7816.” 

“Support moves initially to 0.7682, then 0.7645, removal of which would see a renewed test of the pivotal 13-day exponential average at 0.7624, which ideally holds to keep the immediate upside bias intact.”