AUD/USD: Bulls and bears jostle around mid-0.7700s amid US stimulus hopes

• AUD/USD fades late Friday’s bounce off 0.77227, eases after rising for eight consecutive weeks.
• Democrats’ Senate victory, push for Trump’s impeachment favor American aid package, President-elect Biden called for immediate further fiscal support.
• Covid woes, Sino-American tension and gold’s drop challenge bulls.
• Aussie Retail Sales, China Inflation data to decorate calendar, US stimulus news will be the key.

AUD/USD begins the trading week mostly unchanged near Friday’s close of 0.7760 while battling 0.7750 during the start of Monday’s Asian session. Although the quote fizzles to carry the late Friday’s corrective pullback, it managed to rise for eight consecutive weeks before this week’s start.

US Politics has been the key reason for US Dollar’s recent weakness, which in turn helped equities and Antipodeans, including AUD/USD, during the latest period. The hopes of the US coronavirus (COVID-19) aid package gain momentum after Friday’s downbeat employment data from the US.

US stimulus eyed…

With the Democrats all set to take over the commanding power of the US Congress, hopes of the aid package bolster, which in turn propel equities despite virus woes gaining momentum in the US and the UK. While a drive to impeach US President Donald Trump is hot off-late, which indirectly favors more clarity over the Democrats’ stimulus moves, Friday’s downbeat Nonfarm Payrolls, -150K versus +70K expected, adds more urgency for the much-awaited aid package. Following the data, US President-elect Joe Biden called for immediate further fiscal support and propelled hopes of $2,000 paychecks as well as additional government relief.

On the other hand, US President Donald Trump is of the view, per Bloomberg that Vice President Mike Pence and members of his cabinet won’t attempt to remove him under the 25th Amendment.

Meanwhile, the US and the UK covid numbers waver around the recently flashed record highs while fears of another covid strain, this time from American also gain momentum. It should be noted that the US-China tussle escalates amid the Trump administration’s fresh executive orders to do business with eight US companies as well as a drive to connect to Taiwan, which Beijing doesn’t like.

Against this backdrop, Wall Street benchmarks rally to record tops while the US 10-year Treasury yields also remain upbeat. However, gold prices dropped the heaviest in the last seven weeks after Friday’s downbeat performance.

Moving on, Australia’s November Retail Sales, 7.0% as per Preliminary and prior readings, precede China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for December, expected 0.1% and -0.8% respectively versus -0.5% and -1.5% prior.

While scheduled data may help AUD/USD to remain firm, coupled with the US stimulus hopes, covid fears may join the Sino-American tussle to tame the bulls.

Technical analysis

Although failures to provide a daily closing beyond April 2018 top surrounding 0.7815 drags AUD/USD towards an ascending trend line from December 21, at 0.7730 now, any further downside is likely to be challenged by a 10-week-old rising support line, around 0.7675. Meanwhile, the recent high of 0.7820 adds to the upside filters ahead of March 2018 peak surrounding 0.7920.