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  • AUD/USD seesaws near three-week high after a three-day winning streak.
  • Market sentiment improved amid expectations of further stimulus, likely easy run for the preferred US presidential candidate.
  • Australia announced another aid package, WTO anticipated a 32% blow to trade.
  • Virus data continues to challenge the world, a light economic calendar ahead.

Following its run-up to a three-week top, not to forget consecutive three-days of rising, AUD/USD pauses for a break around 0.6230 at the start of Thursday’s Asian session. While the recovery in risk-tone and Aussie stimulus to combat the coronavirus (COVID-19) kept buyers happy, the virus data offered fewer reasons to stay optimistic.

The receding virus death toll from the European hotspots and expectations of further stimulus, coupled with US President Donald Trump’s efforts to placate traders, countered S&P’s negative outlook on Aussie credit rating. The move got extra ammunition from Australia’s $80 billion jobs-rescue packages that total the nation’s 16.4% GDP contribution towards fighting the pandemic.

The recent push to the market’s risk-tone could be from the news that Bernie Sanders stepped back from the US Presidential Candidate, giving an edge to the market favorite Joe Biden.

On the contrary, the US numbers of the pandemic as well as the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) forecast of a heavy downside impact of the virus on the global trade, likely down between 13% and 32%, weigh on the risk-tone.

While portraying the mood, the US 10-year treasury yields registered a gain of four basis points (bps) to 0.77% whereas Wall Street benchmarks mark gains worth near 3.0% each.

Amid a light economic calendar, the RBA’s Bi-annual Financial Stability Review could offer intermediate moves ahead of the busy US docket comprising weekly Jobless Claims, Producers Price Index (PPI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment to name a few. Additionally, virus data and updates will also offer strong signals to direct the pair’s near-term moves.

Technical analysis

An area comprising March 09 low surrounding 0.6300/10 will precede a 50-day SMA level of 0.6390 to challenge further buying. On the downside, sellers await a clear break below 21-day SMA figures near 0.6050 for fresh entry.