Search ForexCrunch
  • AUD/USD snaps two-day winning streak, prints mild losses amid recent pullback from weekly top.
  • Australia announced A$1.2 billion package for tourism, markets fear 300,000 jobs to lose as wage subsidy support ends this month.
  • Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose 4.1% for March.
  • US President Joe Biden’s speech, Jobless Claims and ECB should be watched closely.

AUD/USD stays heavy around 0.7725-30, recently bounced off an intraday low of 0.7725, during Thursday’s Asian session. The quote refreshed weekly top during early Asia but dwindled afterward amid mixed signals from Australia and abroad.

Among them, fears of mass unemployment, due to the expiry of the government’s JobKeeper program this month, tops all to weigh on the quote. Also on the negative side could be the reflation fears Sydney housing prices soared to an all-time high.

Alternatively, Aussie Consumer Inflation Expectations for March grew 4.1% versus 3.5% market consensus and 3.7% prior. Also positive could be the Aussie government’s heavy package to boost the tourism and traveling industry at home.

Elsewhere, markets remain calm after witnessing the passage of the US $1.9 trillion covid relief bill. US President Joe Biden is up for signing it on Friday but is likely to praise the policymakers during today’s speech.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains of around 3,900 whereas Australia’s ASX 200 drops 0.64% by the press time. Further, the US 10-year Treasury yields battle the previous day’s downbeat Note Auction while taking rounds to 1.53% but the US dollar index (DXY) looks for fresh clues after two consecutive days of downside.

Looking forward, the US dollar moves based on the weekly jobless claims and the ECB meeting outcome, likely to positive, may direct short-term AUD/USD performance. However, the key will be Biden’s speech and the latest US-China tussle as American Secretary of State Antony Blinken will fly to visit friends/foes during his first international visit as the US representative.

Technical analysis

50-day SMA, currently around 0.7735, guards immediate upside ahead of fueling the quote towards the monthly top near 0.7840. Meanwhile, the 0.7700 threshold and recent lows around 0.7620 can restrict the AUD/USD declines.