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  • AUD/USD trades 1.68% lower on Thursday as risk-off sentiment sets in.
  • The pair has now broken the previous wave low but more confirmation is needed.

AUD/USD 1-hour chart

AUD/USD has been pushing lower as a massive risk-off move gets into gear in most markets on Thursday. All of the major indices are lower and AUD has been one of the most risk-sensitive currencies lately.

Looking at the hourly chart, the previous wave low of 0.6897 has now been broken to the downside. This is not enough of a confirmation for wave analysts and a lower high has not been made yet. Often Dow and Elliott Wave analysts look for lower high lower low waves before confirming a trend change. 

There are some other confirmatory signals, the price has now broken below both the 55 and 200 moving averages. The Relative Strength Index has smashed to its lowest level since the previous wave low. Lastly, the MACD is now firmly in the red and the signal lines are extended to the downside. 

On the daily chart, the MACD signal lines look like they are about to have a bearish cross over and the Relative Strength Index looks like it is pulling away from overbought levels. 

There is still much to do before this uptrend changes to a downtrend in AUD/USD and a lower high, lower low wave would be a good place to start on the hourly chart.

AUD/USD break lower

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