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  • AUD/USD has bounced off from the 5-day moving average (MA) support in Asia.  
  • An above-forecast China imports and exports data could boost demand for risky assets.  

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7104, having found bids at the 5-day moving average (MA) support of 0.7086 earlier today.  

China data due in the next few hours is expected to show that exports in CNY terms rose 3.2 percent year-on-year in January, following a 0.2 percent rise in December. Meanwhile, imports are forecast to drop to 2.4 percent in January, following a 3.1 percent decline in December.  

A bigger drop in imports would bolster fears of a deeper slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy and could weigh over the AUD and other risk assets.  

A big miss on exports could also trigger risk aversion as it would mean the anemic demand conditions in the global economy.  

The AUD, however, will likely revisit highs above 0.7130 if China exports and imports data beat estimates by a big margin, it trade surplus with the US drops sharply. That would alleviate global recession fears to some extent, helping equities and other risk assets score gains.  

AUD/USD pivot points