Home AUD/USD Forecast: Australia’s Employment Beats Forecasts
AUD/USD Daily Outlooks

AUD/USD Forecast: Australia’s Employment Beats Forecasts

  • Net employment in Australia increased by 53,000 in March.
  • Australia’s unemployment rate remained constant at 3.5%.
  • Risk sentiment increased due to lower-than-expected US inflation data.

Today’s AUD/USD forecast is bullish. Australia’s employment blew past forecasts for a second month in March, and the unemployment rate stayed close to 50-year lows. The strong report suggests the central bank’s tightening campaign might continue.

Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide-

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported net employment increased by 53,000 in March compared to February. In February, it had rebounded by a significant but slightly downwardly revised 63,600. After several months of seasonal volatility, experts had been expecting a surge of 20,000.

The unemployment rate remained constant at 3.5%, contrary to analysts’ expectations for a modest increase to 3.6%.

Markets have adjusted to a higher chance of 18% for a 25 basis point hike when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets next in May. The local currency increased by 0.2% to $0.6707.

The RBA stopped its rate hikes in April to examine the tightening impact thus far, even though that could mean a delayed return to its inflation objective compared to other major nations. The RBA was keen to preserve the strong job gains.

According to Governor Philip Lowe, the halt does not mean that rate hikes have ended, and the monthly data flow will determine if the central bank needs to change interest rates again.

Aussie also got support from the weaker dollar. The dollar suffered on Thursday as risk sentiment increased due to lower-than-expected US inflation data. This raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will end its monetary tightening after raising interest rates one final time next month.

AUD/USD key events today

Investors will pay close attention to US data, including the initial jobless claims report and the producer price index. The PPI report will give yet another picture of inflation in the US.

AUD/USD technical forecast: Bulls aiming for a new higher high

AUD/USD technical forecast
AUD/USD technical forecast chart

In the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD is bullish above the 30-SMA, with the RSI supporting strong bullish momentum above 50. Bears had control until the price reached the 0.6620 support level. 

Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide-

At this point, bulls took over by breaking above the 30-SMA and the 0.6675 resistance level. Bulls are now making higher highs and lows and will likely take out the 0.6725 resistance level to retest the 0.6760 level.

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.