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  • The AUD/USD is looking to end the week by more than 0.50%.
  • Due to risk aversion, broad US dollar strength, and a decent jobs report, the Australian dollar is under pressure.
  • Technically, the price is strongly bearish as it lies below the 200-SMA.

The forecast for the AUD/USD is strongly bearish after the mixed US data. The US dollar is overall strong amid broad risk aversion. The AUD/USD price trades at 0.7400 at the time of writing, down 0.19% in the North American session as traders head into the long weekend.

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The Australian dollar was on the defensive due to market risk aversion, a recovering US dollar, and mixed US economic data. In addition, global economic prospects are clouded by tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the outbreak of Covid-19 in Shanghai, China.

Macro data supporting the greenback

Data related to the US economy went over the wires before Wall Street opened. Despite a 0.5% decline in retail sales in March, February’s growth was revised upward to 0.8%. In the meantime, initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 185,000 from an expected 171,000, data showed on Thursday.

Despite a high US inflation scenario, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) rose to 65.7, higher than the forecast 59.4. Additionally, consumer inflation expectations are expected to remain at 5.4% next year.

The job market performance of the Australian registry was good but less than expected. Australia’s economy created just 17,900 new jobs, less than 40,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4%, above 3.9%.

What’s next to watch for AUD/USD forecast?

Now that the data has been released, it’s important to look at what next week has in store for AUD/USD traders. This week, RBA minutes and consumer price index data will be available in the Australian docket. Also, from across the pond, the US Listing shows US building permits, housing developments, existing home sales, and instant PMI.

AUD/USD forecast via daily open interest

aud/usd forecast

The AUD/USD price closed in losses yesterday. Meanwhile, the daily open interest for the pair significantly rose. It indicates a strong bearish bias.

AUD/USD price technical forecast: Bears challenging 200-SMA

aud/usd forecast

The AUD/USD price has broken below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The pair seems too vulnerable to hold the 0.7400 support. The downside breakout will bring the 0.7350 support as a target.

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The volume is quite low for the last three bars. This is because the market lacks any volatility on the day. However, the next week will be decisive for the pair.

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