- AUD/USD keeps intraday gains despite mixed trade data from Australia.
- Australian Trade Balance ease to 4,840 in October.
- Biden’s transition process, covid vaccine news combat chatters concerning China.
- RBA’s Debelle becomes immediate catalysts, risk news keeps the driver’s seat.
AUD/USD remains positive, currently up 0.28% to 0.7302, after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) flashed mixed signals for October month’s trade numbers during Tuesday’s Asian session. Other than not so disappointing numbers, the risk-on mood also favors the bulls.
Although the headlines Trade Balance eases from 5,630M prior to 4,840M in its preliminary outcome, Exports and Imports marked notable recovery from +3.9% and -5.9% respective priors to 6% and 8% in that order.
Read: Australia: Trade surplus shrinks to AUD4,840 million in October, as imports rebound sharply
Talking about the risk US President Donald Trump’s order to formally begin the power-shift process to President-elect Joe Biden propels odds of the much-awaited US coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus. The Democratic return to the White House is also cheered amid chatters over ex-Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s likely role as a Treasury Secretary.
Further, the covid vaccines are up for national approvals and suggest the deadly virus could be cured sooner than later. Though, numbers from the US, Europe and the UK are yet to recede despite the latest positive signs. On the contrary, there are no COVID-19 cases in Victoria after the latest patient got released on Monday, which in turn pushes policymakers to open borders for Sydney visitors.
Meanwhile, talks that the US is forming a trade group with its Western allies to combat China’s trade alliance and help Australia to better battle its largest customer offer a little direction to the AUD/USD traders. Also on the negative side is the Brexit uncertainty even if the policymakers recently suggested a trade deal.
Having witnessed the initial reaction to Aussie data, AUD/USD traders will keep their eyes on the speech from the RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle, up for publishing at 02:30 GMT, for fresh impulse. Though, it doesn’t dim the risk catalysts’ impact on the quote.
Technical analysis
AUD/USD forms a short-term ascending triangle formation that currently restricts its moves between 0.7270 and 0.7340. Also acting as extra filters to the moves is the mid-September high of 0.7346 and 100-bar SMA near 0.7340. Considering the latest bearish signals from the MACD, coupled with repeated failures to provide a daily closing beyond the monthly high of 0.7340, bulls should wait for a clear break above 0.7346.
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