AUD/USD: Looks firmer above 0.7700 on US stimulus passage, downbeat Treasury yields
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AUD/USD: Looks firmer above 0.7700 on US stimulus passage, downbeat Treasury yields

  • AUD/USD wavers around weekly top, prints three-day winning streak.
  • US House passes President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus to be signed on Friday, US 10-year Note Auction also favored yields.
  • US dollar weakness, US Treasury yields drop followed the moves, Aussie/China data came in positive.
  • Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations should be observed for immediate direction, Treasury yields are the key.

AUD/USD stays on the front foot, currently poking the weekly top near 0.7740 marked the previous day, during the initial Asian session on Thursday. The quote recently benefited from the decline in the US Treasury yields and the US dollar even as American policymakers passed a $1.9 trillion covid relief bill. Also favoring the mood could be the lesser than market Treasury yields in the 10-year Note Auction and upbeat economics from China and Australia, in contrast to the soft US inflation figures.

Double-barrel attack on the US Treasury yields”¦

While the passage of US President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion covid aid package gained major attention as the bond-positive catalysts, downbeat yields at the key 10-year Note Auction, from 1.55% market rate to 1.52%, also played its role to beat the bond bears. The same exert downside pressure on the US dollar that also weighed on the soft Core inflation figures for February. Additionally, chatters that US President Biden is up for proposing a $2.5 trillion transport infrastructure plan in May also boosted the risks and favored the AUD/USD.

Elsewhere, Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence and China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) as well as Producer Price Index (PPI) all registered upbeat data for February and welcome AUD/USD buyers at home.

It’s worth mentioning that the firmer hopes of economic recovery, due to steady vaccinations and Aussie PM Morrison’s comments suggesting no challenge to Australia’s immunization plan offered extra help to the Antipodeans.

Against this backdrop, Wall Street benchmarks stay firmed whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields drop for the second day, down 1.9 basis points (bps) to 1.525%, by the end of Wednesday’s North American trading session.

Looking forward, Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations for March, forecast 3.5% versus 3.5% prior, will offer nearby directions to AUD/USD. However, major attention will be given to today’s ECB and US President Biden’s speech ahead of Friday’s signing of the stated US stimulus to boost the investors’ morale and favor the bulls.

Technical analysis

50-day SMA, currently around 0.7735, guards immediate upside ahead of fueling the quote towards the monthly top near 0.7840. Meanwhile, the 0.7700 threshold and recent lows around 0.7620 can restrict the AUD/USD price pullback ahead of highlighting the 100-day SMA level of 0.7555 as the key support.


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