AUD/USD: neutralising view for now below recent high at 0.7476/84

• In becalmed markets, AUD/USD is consolidating on the 0.74 handle.
• AUD/USD has made a high of 0.7449 and a low of 0.7391 while the pair remains in a familiar 0.7300/7500 range.

AUD/USD moved up to the highs after the Aussie CPI with the trimmed mean measure falling in line at 0.5% q-o-q and 1.9% y-o-y, (headline slightly softer at 0.4% q-o-q and 2.1% y-o-y).

No more information for the RBA from here

Analysts at Rabobank explained that “the RBA, which already seems to be semi-permanently stuck in that warm and fuzzy “it’ll all be OK, I just know it!” feeling you get after a cheeky lunchtime G&T, essentially has no more information to go on than that neither-here-nor-there data for another three months,” adding,  “luckily for it, China’s official shift back to careful technocratic economic planning ‘Don’t just stand there, build something!’ means that Aussie hard commodities are likely to be supported for now, providing some kind of floor for AUD.”

Since the data, the Aussie drifted lower and made a low of 0.7391 and below the 10 and 21-D SMAs before bulls stepped in in European trade and took the pair back to 0.7432 for a short-lived spell, succumbing to offers back to 50-hourly SMA at 0.74 the figure. There is little going in the market at this juncture and eyes are looking towards the end of the week’s US GDP numbers where a strong number is to be expected, underpinning the greenback and tempering bullish advances.  

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD recently sold off to, tested and bounced off the 0.7310/15 recent lows and analysts at Commerzbank argue that the strong rebound from here implies a reluctance to break down further currently:

“We are going to have to neutralise our view for now. Following such a strong rebound on Friday, we are going to have to allow for a recovery to the 55 day ma and recent high at 0.7476/84. This guards the downtrend at 0.7539. Above the downtrend would see a challenge of the 0.7676 June high and the 0.7670 200 day ma.”