AUD/USD pays a little heed to Aussie retail, trade numbers around mid-0.7700s
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AUD/USD pays a little heed to Aussie retail, trade numbers around mid-0.7700s

  • AUD/USD remains indecisive following Australia’s April month Retail Sales and trade data.
  • Aussie PMIs came in mixed earlier in the day.
  • Risk appetite struggles amid pre-NFP mood, Treasury yield’s rebound and mixed updates over covid, stimulus.
  • US data will be eyed for fresh impulse but sluggish moves can’t be ruled out.

AUD/USD keeps the sideways grind around 0.7750, down 0.05% intraday, after the key Aussie data release on early Thursday. The reason could be traced to the sluggish performance of the markets ahead of Friday’s US employment report, as well as a lack of major catalysts.

Australia’s final reading of Retail Sales for April confirmed 1.1% initial forecasts while Trade Balance jumped above 7900M market consensus to 8028M during the stated month. Further details suggest that Imports slump -3.0% versus 4.0% previous whereas the Exports rose beyond -2.0% prior to +3.0%. It should be noted that China’s Caixin Services PMI also eased below 56.36 prior reading to 55.1 in May and signaled weakness for the AUD/USD.

Earlier in the day, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) marked 58.00 figures for both Services and Composite PMIs for May versus 58.2 and 58.1 respective prior. Additionally, AiG Performance of Construction Index for the said month dropped below 59.1 previous readouts to 58.3.

Not only the sluggish data but a pause in the US Treasury yield’s downside, portrayed the previous day, joins mildly bid stock futures to confuse AUD/USD traders by the press time.

It should, however, be noted that the risk-related headlines have been positive of late. This includes optimism surrounding the US-China phase-one deal and Iran’s accepting the nuclear deal. Furthermore, receding covid numbers, recently to 3, in Australia’s Victoria and optimistic RBA policymakers add to the market optimism. On the contrary, cautious mood ahead of tomorrow’s US data and mixed signals from global central bankers, relating to the inflation fears, contrast to the strong data, trouble the Aussie pair traders.

Having witnessed the initial reaction to the day’s key data in Asia, AUD/USD traders will keep their eyes on the risk catalyst ahead of the scheduled US economics. Among them, the  US ADP Employment Change, an early signal for  Friday’s NFP, as well as US ISM Services PMI, will be the key. It should, however, be noted that the market’s sideways grind is likely to continue ahead of tomorrow’s crucial statistics.

Technical analysis

An area between 0.7755 and 0.7720, comprising a three-week-old falling trend line and 50-day SMA respectively, guards short-term AUD/USD moves. Though, the receding bearish bias could propel the quote towards the 0.7800 threshold and the 0.7820 key hurdle, comprising multiple tops marked since January. On the downside, a surprise downside break of 0.7720 isn’t a free pass to the sellers as early April high and May’s lows carve out 0.7675 as the next important support.


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