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  • The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 3.6%.
  • Following the decision, the Australian dollar dropped as much as 0.4%.
  • The US factory PMI fell below the 50-point mark for the first time since 2009.

Today’s AUD/USD price analysis is bearish. The Australian dollar declined on Tuesday after the central bank held interest rates.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, ending a streak of 10 straight increases. It cited the need for more time to “assess the impact of the rise in interest rates to date and the economic outlook.”

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The dollar gained some of the lost ground on Monday due to data indicating a further slowing of the US economy. The number of new orders decreased, and the factory PMI fell below the 50-point mark for the first time since 2009.

As a result, investors reduced their expectations for how long interest rates would need to stay in the restrictive territory to contain inflation. This lowered the dollar, following a decline in US Treasury yields.

With rates expected to be just above 4.3% by December, futures pricing reveals that markets anticipate the Federal Reserve to start lowering rates as early as September through the end of the year.

The two-year Treasury yield, which usually moves in tandem with expectations for interest rates, was last at 3.9738% after dropping close to 10 basis points on Monday.

The weak US economic data overshadowed new inflation worries after the OPEC+ group shocked markets with plans to cut more production, sending oil benchmarks up 6% on Monday.

AUD/USD key events today

Investors are awaiting labor market data from the US. The JOLTs job openings report will show the number of job vacancies available for unemployed individuals. An increase in job openings will point to a still-tight labor market. 

AUD/USD technical price analysis: Pullback after a range breakout

AUD/USD technical price analysis

The 4-hour chart shows AUD/USD trading above 30-SMA and RSI above 50. This points to a strong bullish move. This comes after the price broke above the 0.6725 range resistance level. 

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After a steep move, the price has paused and is currently pulling back. This pullback might retest the recently broken range resistance and the 30-SMA, where it will bounce higher or return into the range area.

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