AUD/USD Price Analysis: Australia’s GDP Misses Forecast
AUD/USD Daily Outlooks

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Australia’s GDP Misses Forecast

  • Australia’s GDP increased by 0.6% in the third quarter, down from 0.9%.
  • Australia’s annual growth rate accelerated to a dizzying 5.9%, outpacing China.
  • On Tuesday, the RBA increased the cash rate by 25bps.

Today’s AUD/USD price analysis is bearish. The September quarter saw a slight slowdown in Australia’s economy as sky-high prices and rising interest rates reduced consumer spending power, showing that aggressive policy tightening is dampening demand.

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.6% in the third quarter, compared to 0.9% the previous quarter and just shy of predictions of 0.7%, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday.

The country’s annual growth rate accelerated to a dizzying 5.9%, outpacing China partly because of a one-time boom as the economy began recovering from pandemic lockdowns in late 2017.

Household consumption, which increased by 1.1% in the quarter due to spending on vacation, eating out, and new cars, was once again the main driver of growth. That, however, was the smallest advance in a year and down from a 2.1% increase in the second quarter.

The saving ratio, which peaked above 20% during the pandemic and fell to 6.9% this quarter from 8.3% the previous quarter, was another indication that consumers were tightening their purse strings.

On Tuesday, the central bank increased the cash rate by a quarter point to a 10-year high of 3.10%, totaling a shocking 300 basis points of tightening since May.

Markets are betting it is not yet over because futures indicate that rates will peak at about 3.6% in the middle of next year.

AUD/USD key events today

Investors will pay attention to Australia’s trade balance. The trade balance calculates the value difference between goods and services imported and exported during the reported time.

AUD/USD technical price analysis: A 0.6650 support retest is imminent

AUD/USD price analysis

Looking at the 4-hour chart, it is clear that bears have the upper hand. The price is trading far below the 30-SMA, and the RSI favors bears as it is trading below 50. The price has also broken below a strong support trendline showing bears are strong.

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Bears need a small push from the current level to reach the next support level at 0.6650. Given the strong bearish momentum, this might happen soon. The price will also likely break below this support and trade lower.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.