AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears to start stepping in when momentum finally slows

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  • AUD/USD bulls stay in control despite the allure of the downside prospects. 
  • Hourly momentum firm, but a correction will be on the cards from which bears will monitor for. 

As per the start of the weeks, The Watch List: Gold, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR crosses and many more, AUD/USD was highlighted in the following analysis:

Prior analysis

AUD/USD, swing analysis

AUD/USD has formed a weekly W-formation for which a retracement to at least a 38.2% Fibonacci of the bullish impulse would be expected on the way to the neckline of the formation. 

From here, the bears can monitor for 4-hour bearish conditions, with MACD needing to get below the zero line. 

Live market analysis

However, the price has continued to run higher in a risk-on market environment:

In the above 1-hour chart, the price action since the prior analysis is displayed within the box.

When momentum finally slows, there will be scope for a 38.2% Fibo retracement to the neckline of the overextended W-formation on the hourly chart.

Should the support fail, then the price would be expected to deteriorate as per the prior analysis on the weekly chart: 

Live market, weekly chart

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