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  • The AUD/USD pair remains under strong selling pressure after failing to retest the median line (ML).
  • It could try to rebound only if the lower median line (LML) holds.
  • The Unemployment Claims indicator could be decisive in the short term.

The AUD/USD price is trading in the red at 0.7097 at the time of writing. The bias remains bearish as the Dollar Index could resume its growth any time after its correction. The currency pair failed to activate a larger rebound signaling that the pressure remains high and could come back down towards 0.7062 lower low.

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Fundamentally, the Australian Retail Sales reported a 4.9% growth in September, matching expectations, while the Trade Balance dropped from 11.82B to 11.22B below 11.25B expected. Tonight, the AIG Construction Index will be released as well, but I don’t think that will impact the AUD/USD pair.

The US Unemployment Claims indicator could be decisive today, and it could bring more volatility and strong moves in the short term. It is expected at 238K in the previous week versus 199K in the previous reporting period.

Tomorrow, the Non-Farm Employment Change is expected at 553K in November versus 531K in October. In addition, the Unemployment Rate may drop from 4.6% to 4.5%, while the Average Hourly Earnings could report a 0.4% growth in the last month. Also, the ISM Services PMI could drop from 66.7 to 64.9 points, signaling a slowdown in expansion.

AUD/USD price technical analysis: Downtrend prevails

aud/usd price

As you can see on the 4-hour chart, the AUD/USD pair has only tested and retested the weekly pivot point of 0.7167, where it has found resistance. Now, it’s traded back below the 0.7105 level, and it challenges the descending pitchfork’s lower median line (LML).

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Still, in the short term, it seems a little oversold. After failing to stabilize below the lower median line (LML) in the previous attempts, the AUD/USD can still rebound if the lower median line (LML) holds. However, its failure to retest the descending pitchfork’s median line (ML) in the short term signaled that the sellers are still very strong.

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