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  • AUD/USD slipped below 0.7500 this week but stays within this week’s range ahead of the US jobs data on Friday.
  • Despite structurally higher commodity prices and expectations of hawkish RBA policy, the Australian dollar remains firm.
  • Technically, the pair is ranging and looking for a bearish breakout.

The AUD/USD price fell below 0.7500 on Thursday, although it remains rangebound around 0.7460-0.7540 this week due to strong support near the big number.

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As the day before official US data was released, little movement was observed in the pair due to the latest data from the US showing inflation (measured by the PCE core price index) picked up in February and further evidence of resilient labor market.

The Fed’s recent hawkish turn this week is supported by this week’s data and rhetoric, but the sell-off at the end of the quarter and the end of the month has weakened the dollar.

Therefore, the AUD/USD pair held near the 0.7500 level this week, with short-term bulls attempting to test the Q4 2021 highs around 0.7560.

The geographic distance between Australia and Ukraine, as well as the spike in commodities prices, have been major tailwinds for the Australian economy. CBA currency strategists say the Australian dollar has more room to grow this year if war contributes to an increase in energy prices. According to the analysts, AUDUSD will likely break the $0.7516 resistance soon and rally to $0.7673.

What’s next to watch for AUD/USD?

As trading conditions are generally non-binding before the key data release, such a move may have to wait until Friday’s official US jobs report. Furthermore, recent strong data from Australia is likely to keep the pair above this week’s low at 0.7400.

In contrast, building permits for new homes increased 43.5% month-on-month in February, more than recovering from the 27.1% month-on-month drop in January, while the number of job vacancies rose by 6.9% quarterly to a record 423,500 6.9%. These data support expectations that the RBA will soon join many other G10 central banks in announcing a hawkish shift.

AUD/USD price technical analysis: Bears gearing up for a breakout

aud/usd price

The AUD/USD price has maintained a rangebound behavior for many trading sessions. The price is playing with the 20-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The pattern indicates a potentially strong bearish reversal. If the price remains below the 0.7500 area, the probability of a downside breakout will be high.

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Alternatively, if the price breaks above 0.7550, we will see a surge towards the 0.7600 area followed by 0.7700. However, the upside path is not the least resistant.

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