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  • After hitting a 25-month low, the AUD/USD pair failed to recover.
  • To protect homebuyers, the Reserve Bank of Australia and ANZ are raising variable mortgage rates by 50 basis points.
  • As markets turn risky ahead of key data/events, fears of a recession support demand for US dollar safe-havens.
  • Bears may be favored by the Fed’s June US ISM Service PMI minutes despite the RBA’s failure to impress them.

A looming economic slowdown and key data/event concerns have caused the AUD/USD price to pull back from the intraday high. It extends its pullback from the intraday high at 0.6820, however, as the Aussie accepts offers around 0.6795.

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News out of Australia suggests weakness in the property market could have contributed to the Aussie’s recent weakness as leading bankers backed off from a 50 basis point (bp) rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Australia’s top two banks are the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. Reuters reported that the No. 1 and No. 4 banks each raised variable home loan rates by 0.5% a year since July 15.

According to the news, Australian lenders are keeping pace with the central bank, passing on the full rate hike to their clients in anticipation of reaping the benefits in a market that has shown some signs of slowing down after a 22% price increase last year.

Due to the pair’s status as a risk barometer, comments from Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu also weighed on AUD/USD rates. Beijing may be concerned that support for Moscow will only exacerbate the Russo-Ukrainian crisis and put even more pressure on the global supply chain, which will compound recession woes.

The US data and hawkish bets on the next moves by major central banks are also fueling risk aversion, which supports the safe-haven demand for the US dollar and puts pressure on AUD/USD rates. Compared to expectations of 0.5%, US manufacturing orders for May rose by 1.6% m/m and were revised by 0.7%.

A five-week low in Treasury yields the day before was recouped, rising just two basis points (bp) to 2.82%, while S&P 500 futures were trading around 3830 when the publication was made.

AUD/USD key events today

As recession fears prevail and the RBA cannot please buyers of AUD/USD, prices will likely remain under pressure. The FOMC minutes for today and the ISM US Services PMI for June will provide additional information.

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AUD/USD price technical analysis: Buying capped by 20-SMA

AUD/USD price

The AUD/USD price attempted to recover from yesterday’s lows. However, the gains have been capped by the 20-period SMA. The pair is in the process of creating a W formation which is considered a bullish reversal pattern.

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