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  • AUD/USD sellers attack lower end of short-term trading range.
  • Australia marks eight new covid cases after Brisbane went on a three-day lockdown the previous day.
  • Ex-RBA official suggests more bond buying, AU-US bond moves suggest further weakness for AUD/USD.
  • Risk catalysts will keep the driver’s seat amid light calendar ahead of Friday’s US NFP.

AUD/USD fails to keep the spike to the day’s high of 0.7642 as it recently dropped to 0.7628, intraday low, amid early Tuesday. Although the US dollar moves could largely be traced to the pair’s recent weakness, the coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence in Brisbane and following lockdown also exert downside pressure.

Following a three-day lockdown announcement, Brisbane witnesses eight new cases of the virus out of which six were found as connected to the initially reported first transmission. Hence, the authorities are searching for clues for the rest two cases and their infection roots.

Elsewhere, former board member of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) John  Edwards said, via Bloomberg, “I think we are heading towards 80 US cent. It’ll be awkward for us if it goes much over 80 U.S. cents and that means that the RBA has got to stay in the bond-buying business for quite a while.” On the contrary, the AU-US bond spread battles the ex-RBA official’s analysis while suggesting a $0.74 price, per an Economist and Strategist Robert Rennie.

Talking about risks, the US-China tussles keep escalating as the Western friends eye for stronger cooperation. Also on the negative side could be the covid woes in Europe and the US moves to make it easier for diplomats to meet Taiwanese officials, per the Financial Times (FT).

Meanwhile, chatters around US President Biden’s $3.0 trillion infrastructure plan join mixed sentiment concerning vaccinations and the pre-NFP trading lull amid a light calendar week weigh on the market sentiment.

It’s worth mentioning that Australia’s weekly consumer confidence grew past 110.4 prior to 112.3, per the ANZ/Roy Morgan survey.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures seesaw between mild gains and losses while the US dollar index (DXY) bulls catch a breather around the yearly top marked the previous day. Further, US 10-year Treasury yield trims early Asian session losses while taking rounds to 1.71% by the press time.

Looking forward, covid headlines and the US dollar moves will be the key for AUD/USD traders to watch. Also important are news concerning China and US stimulus.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond 100-day SMA, around 0.7620 by the press time, enables AUD/USD bulls to eye the 0.7700 threshold during further recovery from the key 0.7557-62 support-zone comprising lows marked since December 28, 2020.