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  • AUD/USD bearish positions get squeezed out as shift in market sentiment flips.
  • RBA pacts no surprises for the markets and focus is on the Fed and Dollar.  

AUD/USD rallied at the start of this month from a prior support/spike low down at 0.6956 (4th June low) and has kept going despite dovish rhetoric at the RBA and two consecutive rate hikes.  Markets are were inclined to see how dovish the RBA was and have evidently taken the view that there is more downside risk in the US Dollar having already priced in the RBA’s dovishness.  

Any signs of data improvements have lifted the Aussie and given that the statement was not as dovish as it could have been from the RBA this week, bulls took the green light to pare back losses. The ‘smart money’ ate up bearish positions, triggering ascents through a lack of bearish liquidity on the upside, exuberating the moves as stops were triggered above 0.70 the figure and again above 0.7030 and 0.7040 which left the highest print on the charts since the 30th June at 0.7047. This was a new two-month high, despite the retails sales miss.

Australia’s official May data continued today with Retail Sales. For the month (M/M) this arrived for May below expectations at 0.1% (exp 0.2%; previous -0.1%). However, this is going to keep the rate cut buzz alive since the RBA tipped its hat to further cuts to come down the line if things do not improve. The RBA repeated that the “main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for consumption.”

Overall, the RBA remains on the optimistic side regarding Australia’s growth outlook. Moreover, the language on the Aussie was barely changed in the statement: “The Australian dollar is at the low end of its narrow range of recent times.” In contrast, the Trump administration is calling out China and Europea as currency manipulators and given the prospects of a protracted trade spat, a weaker US Dollar and weaker US lower rates are likely to support the Aussie in the balance of deteriorating global trade conditions. Indeed, the cuts by the RBA  so far, and even an additional one late in the year by the RBA may have a limited downside impact on the long-term AUD outlook. Furthermore, the persistent market’s short positioning on the AUD suggests a higher potential for upside pressure as positions are squared and cleared out by the ‘smart money’.

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD has seen a strong rebound from the 38.2% retracement at 0.6958 and is currently eroding the top of the cloud at 0.7035 and heading to the April peak at 0.7069, analysts at Commerzbank noted:

“Above 0.7069, resistance can be spotted at the 0.7207 February high. A rise above the 0.7207 late February high would target the December 2018 high at 0.7394,” the analysts argue.