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  • AUD/USD extends recovery moves from 11-week-old support line.
  • US stimulus, cautiously optimistic Fedspeak and vaccinations are likely behind the latest run-up.
  • Virus woes, US political turmoil challenge the risk but gains of US Treasury yields, Wall Street supersedes all.
  • Aussie Job Vacancies, chatters around American fiscal relief, virus and vaccine will be the key.

AUD/USD holds onto the upside momentum while taking the bids around 0.7775 during the initial Asian session on Wednesday. The aussie pair rose for the first time in the last four days on Tuesday as risks cheer hopes of the US fiscal stimulus announcement, coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine signals as well as upbeat comments from the Federal Reserve policymakers. It should, however, be noted that US political drama surrounding President Donald Trump’s impeachment and virus woes in the Northern hemisphere probed bulls amid a light calendar.

DXY disappoints bulls but Wall Street, US Treasury yields stay positive…

Expectations of a mammoth aid package from US President-elect Joe Biden, during his Thursday’s speech, joined hands with most Fed members expecting strong recovery and turning down negative rates during their latest speeches to favor risks. Also bolstering the sentiment could be vaccine updates like the one from Israel suggesting over 33.0% reduction in virus infection following the use of Pfizer-BioNTech’s cure to the deadly virus.

On the contrary, policymakers in Germany and the UK are worried over hospital capacities while covid numbers from the US, Japan and some other parts of Asia also refrain from declining and pose a threat to the risk-on mood. Further, the Sino-American tension escalates after China is alleged to intensify the Hong Kong crackdown whereas disagreements amid the Italian policymakers over usage of the ECB’s fund as well as US Democrats’ push for Trump’s impeachment also test market bulls.

Against this backdrop, Wall Street benchmarks print mild gains with headline banks like Goldman Sachs leading the rise. Further, the US 10-year Treasury yields remain upbeat around the multi-month high of 1.15%. The market optimism weighs on the US dollar index (DXY) that marked the biggest losses in over a month while snapping a three-day winning streak the previous day.

Looking forward, AUD/USD bulls seek some more details on the US relief package to keep the upside momentum while good news from the vaccinations can add a cherry on the cake. Though, US political tension and Aussie Job Vacancies data for the quarter-ending on November will be the key to watch. In its latest release, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said, “Total job vacancies in August 2020 were 206,000, an increase of 59.4% from May 2020.”

Technical analysis

A sustained bounce of an ascending trend line from November 02, at 0.7677 now, keeps AUD/USD buyers hopeful of refreshing the multi-month high, flashed last week, around 0.7820.