AUD/USD technical analysis: Surrenders early gains, conflicting signals on hourly chart

• AUD/USD’s hourly chart shows a rising wedge breakdown – a bearish reversal pattern,  
• The hourly chart is also reporting a golden crossover.  

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6754, representing marginal losses on the day, having hit a high of 0.6765 in the early Asian trading hours. The pair hit a high of 0.6774 on Friday.

The pullback from Friday’s high has confirmed a rising wedge breakdown on the hourly chart. A rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern, meaning the bounce from Oct. 2’s low of 0.6771 has ended and the bears have regained control.

Rising wedge breakdowns usually yield a drop to its bottom or the starting point. Put simply, the wedge breakdown suggests cope for a retest of recent lows near 0.6770.

While the rising wedge breakdown indicates the path of least resistance is to the downside, the golden crossover suggests otherwise.

The 50-hour moving average (MA) has crossed above the 200-hour MA, confirming a bullish or golden crossover. The rising wedge breakdown, however, will take precedence over the golden crossover as the latter is a lagging indicator.

That said, a strong bounce from the 200-hour MA, currently at 0.6744, would neutralize the wedge breakdown and open the doors for a move higher to 0.68.

Hourly chart

Trend: Neutral

Technical levels