AUD/USD to struggle to surpass the 0.7800 handle – Westpac


AUD/USD at 0.7750 it is up only 0.25% on the week, a clear underperformance within the G10. Earlier this week, AUD/USD traded with the 0.7800 handle for the first time since 18 March but economists at Westpac do not expect the aussie to trade above this level in the short-term.

Iron ore in A$ terms is just below record highs

“The price action seems somewhat at odds with the 10 year highs on spot iron ore prices. It is more than just iron ore too, with our measure of Australia’s commodity export basket reaching highs since the January peak. More hefty trade surpluses appear to be on the way.”

“The domestic momentum also continues, even if the fortnightly payrolls series due Wed will provide the first data on the impact of JobKeeper’s end. March retail sales was solid and the AU-NZ travel bubble is underway while domestic services such as sport and recreation expand capacity nationwide.” 

“Our preference is to buy AUD/USD on dips below 0.7700, with 0.7900 our late Q2 target. Still, the aussie would have been down on the week without a squeeze in sympathy with CAD as the BoC confirmed QE tapering and an earlier potential rate hike. The mixed global mood should limit the amount of trade above 0.7800 near-term.”


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