According to analysts from Rabobank, the AUD/USD will have difficulties holding above 0.7800 on a six months perspective, assuming the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to be seen as less dovish than other central banks.
“The market has been examining the minutes of the RBA June 1 meeting for clues as to what measures will be announced on July 6 in respect of the Bank’s asset purchase programmes. For the same reason the market will also be focused on the keynote speech due to be delivered by RBA Governor on June 17.”
“The markets has taken the tone of the minutes to be dovish. This is due to cautious tone of policymakers but also to the options that were laid out regarding the decision on future government bond purchases that will be made next month.”
“AUD/USD is currently trading back below the 0.77 level with the firmer USD also weighing on the currency pair. We maintain the forecast that AUD/USD will struggle to sustain levels above 0.78 on a 6 month view, though this assumes the RBA continues to take care to avoid being seen as less dovish than other major central banks.”