AUD/USD Breaks Significant Barrier

AUD/USD made an important breakout and reached a 5 month high on Chinese data and risk appetite. There are more technical barriers ahead for this strong currency. Update on technicals and fundamentals.

In the weekly AUD USD forecasts, I’m always mentioning the important 0.9327 line. This accompanies the Aussie for almost a year. It was finally broken during the New York session:

Steaming China

Strong Chinese data that was published over the weekend. Chinese industrial production rose at an annual rate of 3.9%, higher than 13.1% that was predicted. Also other indicators such as the amount of new loans, came out better than expected.

China is Australia’s principal trade partner. As the data was published over the weekend, the reaction came in the form of a weekend gap – AUD/USD opened around 0.93, higher than the 0.9263 close. During the Asian session, the pair stayed around these levels.

Breaking out and further lines

But as the day continued, the Aussie got a boost from an unexpected direction – Europe. The good news about the Basel III accord to stabilize banks helped improve the global mood and pushed the Aussie over 0.9327.

After the breakout, AUD/USD continued north and bounced back at 0.9362, just 4 pips under the next resistance line of 0.9366 which was the peak back in April. So, at 0.9350, the Aussie is at a 5 month high.

A break above this level will send the pair towards the 2009 high of 0.9405 which is also a significant barrier. The next lines are at 0.95 and 0.97 which were last seen before the financial crisis, back in 2008.

A failure to hold these gains will send AUD/USD towards support at 0.9220 which was the peak in August and was broken last week on the excellent job figures. Further below, the next lines of support are at 0.9135 and 0.9080.

Aussie factors

All in all, the Australian economy is doing well, and so is its main trade partner at that side of the world. But, the Aussie doesn’t move solely on Australian data – it’s also categorized as a “risk” currency, that rises with global optimism and falls with pessimism.

If the global mood dampens, it will be a test for the Aussie – can it rally on its own, or is it still vulnerable to global mood?

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