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AUD/USD  showed some movement in both directions, but closed the week unchanged.  AUD/USD closed the week at 0.7743.  It’s a  quiet week ahead, with  just three events on the calendar.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In the US, the news was mixed as inflation slipped, while employment and manufacturing numbers beat expectations. The  Federal Reserve statement was clearly dovish, which helped the Aussie hold its own last week. There were no numbers out of Australia last week, so the pair was largely dependent on US data.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”AUDUSDUpdate”/]

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AUD_USD_Forecast.Jun22-26

  1. CB Leading Index: Tuesday, 00:00. This index is based on 7 economic indicators, but is considered a minor event since most of the data has been previously released. The indicator dipped 0.1% in March, its first decline in 2015. Will we see a rebound in the April report?
  2. HPI: Tuesday, 1:30. This housing inflation indicator provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the Australian housing sector. The index is released on a quarterly basis, which magnifies the impact of each reading. In Q4 of 2014, the index rose to 1.9%, within expectations. This marked its sharpest gain in 4 quarters. The upswing is expected to continue in Q1, with a forecast of 2.2%.
  3. Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 1:45. The Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese data such as PMIs, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner. For most of 2015, the index has been below the 50-point level, which separates contraction from expansion. The index showed little movement in May, coming in at 49.1 points. The estimate for the June report stands at 49.4 points.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened the week at 0.7729 and dropped to a low of 0.7633, as support held firm at 0.7601  (discussed last week). The pair then reversed directions, touching a  high of 0.7849.  The pair  closed the week at 0.7743.

Live chart of AUD/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin with 0.8180 was an important cap in January.

0.8077 was an active line in May.

0.7978 is the next line of resistance.

0.7901 was an important cap in March. This line held firm as the pair softened before recovering.

0.7798 was tested during the week and remains a weak resistance line. It could see further action early in the week.

0.7692 is providing immediate support. It was tested last week as the pair lost ground before recovering.

0.7601  is a strong support level.

0.7528 is the next support line.

0.7403 has  remained intact  since May 2009. At that time, the Aussie was in the midst of a rally which saw it climb above the 0.94 line.

The final support line for now is 0.7283.

I  am neutral on AUD/USD.

US numbers have been a mix, although Q2 numbers could still end up improving over a dismal Q1. The US economy continues to outperform that of Australia, but the  lack of confidence from Yellen could weigh on the greenback.

In our latest podcast we digest the dollar dove dive, update on Greece and preview next week’s events.

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