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After a rise from the 1.0048 area seen at the end of the past week, we came out with an irregular formation in wave B)/2). As such, our bias remains clearly to the downside. In fact, wave B)/2) may have already found a pick around 1.0340 if we consider   impulsive fall on the intra-day basis .

But keep in mind that we are in choppy period of trading, so only price can confirm a downtrend, which means we need 1.0050 breakout when prices should accelerate down to 0.99!

AUD USD Elliott Wave Analysis November 16 2011


Guest post by Gregor Horvat

On the 30min chart we can count minor five waves down from 1.0343 pick. As such, recovery from the most recent swing low should be a corrective wave, primary labeled as wave (ii) on the chart. If that will prove correct, then we know that we need a corrective personality, which means a slow, maybe choppy, but definitely 3-wave, a)-b)-c) bounce that should find resistance ideally between 50.61.8% retracement   area from where we expect a bearish reversal!

Critical/invalidation level at 1.0343; as long this level holds bias are to the downside!

AUD USD Technical Elliott Wave Analysis November 16 2011

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