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AUD/USD is playing around with parity, hours before the long-awaited QEII decision in the US. Will the Aussie enjoy US weakness and settle at the uncharted zone?  Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

aud to usd november 3

AUD to USD just under parity, at 0.9996.

AUD/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  AUD/USD dropped to 0.9960 before recovering – narrow range.
  • Current Range between 0.9960 to 1.
  • Further levels in both directions: Below 0.9960, 0.9915, 0.9850, 0.9750, 0.9669. Above, parity, 1.0023, 1.02, 1.03.
  • 0.9660 is the strongest line, holding the Aussie again and again.
  • AUD/USD needs to convincingly win parity before moving to further levels.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 00:30 Australian Building Approvals. Exp. +0.3%. Actual -6.6%. Disappointment shrugged off by Aussie.
  • 12:30 US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. +21K.
  • 14:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.5 points. Important Hint for NFP on Friday.
  • 14:00 Factory Orders. Exp. +1.3%.
  • 18:15 QE2 Decision. One of the most important events of the year. The size of quantitative easing and the wording of the FOMC Statement will rock the markets for many days.
  • 21:45 New Zealand Employment Change. Exp. +0.5%. This important figure from its neighbor has an impact on Australia as well.

AUD/USD Sentiment

  • The surprising rate hike in Australia gave a boost to the Aussie, and its better positioned for a rise.
  • Chinese growth continues to be an important theme for Australia.
  • The inevitable second round of quantitative easing in the US is a done deal, but will probably be of a lesser scale than thought earlier. A huge QE2 will send the Euro higher. A weak one will boost the dollar. Volatility will remain high for a long time.
  • Currensee Community: 68% are short, 32% are long. 373 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment. Is the community seeing strong resistance at parity?

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