AUD/USD Nov. 30 – Trading Under Resistance, Despite Strong

AUD/USD is still suffering from the European debt crisis, and is unable to climb back over the important line it lost, despite signs of strength in its economy. Is it gathering energy to rise above this line on the GDP release? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

AUD to USD under 0.9660

AUD/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  AUD USD had an active session after the data was released, but it remained in range.
• Current Range:  0.9660 to 0.9725.
• Further levels in both directions: Below   0.9660, 0.9540, 0.9460, 0.9366. Above 0.9725,  0.9863,  0.9915,  1.0000, 1.0080, 1.0180, 1.0220, 1.03.
• Parity is a big technical hurdle, but unlikely to be tackled in current conditions.
• Holding on to 0.9660 is very important for the Aussie.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

• 00:30 Australian Building Approvals. Exp. +1.6%. Actual +9.3% – excellent news.
• 00:30 Australian Private Sector Credit. Exp. 0.2%. Actual +0.1%.
• 00:30 Australian  Current Account. Exp. -6.5 billion. Actual -7.8 billion – disappointment.
• 14:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Exp. +1.2%. Actual +0.6%.
• 14:55 US Chicago PMI. Exp. 60.1 points. Actual 62.5 points.
• 15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Exp. 52.7 points. Actual 54.1.
• 20:00 US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke talks.
• 22:30 Australian AIG Manufacturing Index.
• 00:30 (Wednesday) Australian GDP. Exp. +0.5%. We could see a positive surprise here.

AUD/USD Sentiment

• North Korean attack on South Korea surprises the world and triggers risk aversive trading. The Aussie is sensitive to this news, but the  Korean tensions are slowly defusing.
• Contagion spreading: Fears that Spain and Italy will also need bailout packages impacts the whole world, not only the Euro. Portugal might receive aid soon. Here’s the latest contagion update.
• GDP is very important for the Aussie. This could be a big boost.
• Currensee Community: 91% are short, 9% are long. 364 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment. The community continues seeing more falls in AUD/USD.

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