AUD/USD Nov. 4 – Parity Conquered – What’s Next?

AUD/USD settled nicely above parity, at new all time highs after the QE2 decision. Will it push forward, or rest on parity?  Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

AUD to USD far enough from parity, at 1.0050.

AUD/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  AUD/USD traded in a narrow range between 1.0023 and 1.0065.
• Current Range between 1.0023 to 1.01.
• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.0023, 1.0000, 0.9960, 0.9915, 0.9850, 0.9750, 0.9669. Above 1.01, 1.02, 1.03.
• Parity now turns into strong support.
• AUD/USD looks forward towards uncharted areas.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

• 00:30 Australian Retail Sales. Exp. +0.5%. Actual +0.3%. Small disappointment.
• 00:30 Australian Trade Balance. Exp. +2.13, Actual, +1.7.
• 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 437K.
• 12:30 US Prelim Nonfarm Productivity. Exp. +0.9%.
• 12:30 US Prelim Unit Labor Costs. Exp. +0.8%.
• 22:30 Australian AIG Construction Index.
• 00:30 (Friday) RBA Monetary Policy Statement. Optimistic view of the economy expected.

AUD/USD Sentiment

• The surprising rate hike in Australia gave a boost to the Aussie, and its better positioned for a rise.
• Chinese growth continues to be an important theme for Australia.
• QE2 weakened the US dollar, and sent AUD/USD to new historic highs.
• US jobless claims are important towards the NFP.
• The RBA Monetary Policy Statement is very important for the Aussie, and is likely to boost it.
• Currensee Community: 68% are short, 32% are long. 336 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment. Is the community seeing strong resistance at parity?

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